Wednesday, October 19, 2016

Nintendo NX Prediction Challenge!

One year, seven months and two days. That’s how long it’s been since Satoru Iwata announced the existence of the Nintendo NX. Since then, the amount of info we’ve been officially given has been very sparse. But no more! It’s finally time for us to learn more about the heck this thing actually is. But before we do, I think it’ll be fun to make some predictions about the NX. And to make things even more fun, I enlisted the help of 10 of my friends! Let’s see what we predicted and eventually see who was the most correct!
Before we begin, it is important to point out that these surveys were conducted in December 2015 and January 2016. Since then, some of the questions have already been answered.

Either way, huge thanks to Adam, Alex, Arsenette, Chris A, Chris S, David, Jordan, Mike, Rider, Rob, and Ube for helping me out with this survey!



Question 1: The most popular rumor right now is that the NX is actually a combination of a home console and a handheld. Do you believe this to be true? [Yes / No]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Chris A: “Nintendo does a fairly good job at thinking outside the box. The Wii U gamepad as already a step towards home console and handheld device, so I can definitely see this as a trial run.”

David: “I know nothing about the NX but it wouldn’t surprise me.”

Mike: “This is just a guess but it does seem like a “Nintendo-thing- to-do”. They’re always finding innovative ways for gaming and I feel like this will be a good way for them to go. They’ve been in both the console and handheld business since the early 90’s (maybe earlier?) and this seems like a smart move if they’re able to pull it off.”

Rob: “It would seem like the perfect progression from the Wii U, given said console’s tablet-like GamePad. In addition, with Nintendo being a strong force in the handheld market with the 3DS, bringing portable qualities to the NX would be appropriate.”

People Who said “No”:
Arsenette: “Because that was the problem with the WiiU. It seemed to me that Nintendo didn’t know what it wanted other than trying to get people to buy a 3DS but for their TV.. I doubt they will do the same mistake twice.”

Jordan: “Nintendo already has a success in the 3DS. While it’s not new, the system certainly has some time left before Nintendo moves on to a new handheld device.”

My Prediction: I have a feeling that I may end up being wrong on this one, but I chose No. Based on what Iwata said in the past, I feel like Nintendo will still have a home console and a handheld device but will both use the same OS in order to make porting games between devices easier.



Question 2: Both of Nintendo’s current devices (Wii U and 3DS) use a touchscreen. Will the NX also have a touchscreen? [Yes / No]

Results:


Note: Rider’s answer involved him saying that if the NX is a portable device, it will have a touchscreen, and if it’s a home console, it won’t, hence the half votes.

People who said “Yes”:
Chris S: “In a pre-iPhone era, the DS helped bring touchscreen gaming to the mainstream. If Nintendo wants to keep an air of simplicity with its interface(s), the touchscreen is in.”

Adam: “Easy technology to include at this point. Hopefully it will be optional (not required) during actual gameplay.”

Chris A: “Nintendo seems to like touch all the way back to the first DS. I don’t see them changing that ever. Even Sony used touch functionality to some effect.”

Alex: “Many products, including tablets and most phones, have been utilizing touchscreens so it makes sense that Nintendo would continue to utilize them”

David: “Touchscreen is becoming increasingly popular amongst many devices.”

Mike: “I feel like it will because the past 2 generations of handhelds plus the Wii U all incorporate a touch screen, so it makes sense that they would keep it going forward and that would also allow backwards compatibility (which who knows if that will be.)”

My Prediction: If you’re wondering who the one person who said No was, that would be me. As much as I like the Wii U, the controller was the biggest reason why Nintendo was unable to make the price of the console lower than it is. Also, most games really didn’t use the touch screen very effectively.



Question 3: The touchscreen on both the Wii U and 3DS are resistive screens. If the NX does have a touchscreen, what type of screen will it be? [Resistive / Capacitive]

Results:


Note: Two people elected to not answer this question.

People who said “Resistive”:
Rob: “Unlike capacitive screens, which are more accurate but fragile, resistive screens are sturdier at the cost of lower tech. Nintendo’s systems hold up well over time, so why not stick with what works?”

Chris A: “Without changing the stylus too, a capacitive touchscreen would restrict the user to using just their finger. I believe Nintendo would want players to be able to touch the screen with their fingers, wearing gloves or not, as well as a stylus.”

People Who said “Capacitive”:
Rider: ‘Nintendo has been using Resistive for a few generations but I think even they may be feeling it’s time to move on, with how much more accessible they’ve gotten due to Smartphone developments, the ability to have multi-touch would also enhance the experience, along with not having to worry about a stylus that might get lost. There are also rumors floating around about NX being based on a modification of Android and if true a change in touch screens might be necessary.”

Chris S: “This is going to contrast what I said earlier ­ Yes, Nintendo wants to keep things simple & durable, but resistive touchscreen/touchpads feel like old technology compared to their capacitive counterparts.”

Mike: “Many people are used to that type of a screen because of smartphones, plus it has a sharper image display as well as multi-touch capability (such as using 2 fingers to zoom in on a picture on a smartphone)”

My Prediction: I said Capacitive. Multi touch games have become more of a standard in touchscreen gaming and resistive screens would limit that too much.



Question 4: It’s generally accepted that the PS4 is currently the most powerful home console. If there is at least a home console component for the NX, how powerful will the console be? [On par or stronger than a PS4 / Less powerful than a PS4]

Results:


Note: This question is referring to the original PS4, not the PS4 Pro.

People who said “On par or stronger than a PS4”:
Rob: “By the time the NX releases, it should be up to the same level as PS4 in terms of processing power, while Sony’s next console will be superior in that respect. Nintendo’s systems are known more for their ingenuity, as opposed to processing power, so they can get by with using inexpensive tech.”

Chris S: “Nintendo is shooting towards a weird mid ­generation release which might be fine for 3DS and Wii U fans who are ready, but the gaming community may not be so ready. The NX cannot look like a step back, and at least look equivalent to the PS4’s power. Third parties will also work better with “current” tech, and not older stuff ala the Wii.”

Adam: “It will end up competing with next generation Sony and Microsoft platforms (and Steam??), so something weaker than last generation will get laughed at.”

People Who said “Less powerful than a PS4”:
Arsenette: “Nintendo’s logic has never been to be the most powerful but the most fun to play (game wise). If it turns out to be powerful then by all means but that’s not their explicit goal (unlike Microsoft).”

Mike: “Nintendo has never really been one to have “powerful” consoles and I feel like they’ll continue going that route.”

David: “Sony does what Nintendon’t”

Chris A: “Nintendo is behind the curve when it comes to hardware, and does not seem interested in catching up. They focus on innovation and fun, which is commendable, but not always best.”

Ube: “Hardcore gamers have never been Nintendo's target audience.”

My Prediction: I said Less powerful than a PS4. I don’t think Nintendo believes that the average consumer cares about raw power and would prefer to cut costs by using some less powerful processors.



Question 5: Both the Wii U and 3DS are backwards compatible with their respective previous generations of hardware. Will the NX be backwards compatible with Wii U and/or 3DS games? [Yes / No]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Chris S: “Nintendo has had a strong reputation with embracing backwards compatibility. The nature of the glasses­ free 3D of the 3DS and the second screen experience of the Wii U would probably cause issues with 100% compatibility but I trust Nintendo to figure it out.”

Rob: “It wouldn’t make sense for the NX not to be backwards compatible. After their previous systems have been backwards compatible, Nintendo would be wise to continue the trend.”

Rider: “I feel like it will most likely be backwards compatible with the Wii U but not necessarily with the 3DS. One of the biggest points of the 3DS is the 3D aspect, so unless they incorporate the 3D technology into the NX (which I don’t think they will) I doubt it’ll be there.”

David: “It would hurt them not to.”

Alex: “Backwards compatibility is a big selling point for console buyers”

Chris A: “I can see this trend continuing because if sales is what Nintendo is after, having a console that can replace your Wii U, or even play Wii U games so that you don’t feel like you need to buy both consoles, consolidates user expenditure”

People Who said “No”:
Rider: “The rumors of a cartridge based system feel pretty likely (I’ll elaborate later on that question) and considering Nintendo’s favorite way of backwards compatibility is shoving the previous console inside of their new one it feels pretty unlikely they’ll leave the disk slot just for backwards compatibility.”

Arsenette: “I don’t believe they will since they want to change the architecture design. Besides, they are really gunning to expand their digital market so they will make you pay for the same game 3-4 times over if they can get away with it. It has worked in the past.”

My Prediction: I realize this contradicts my prediction for question 2, but I’m going to hedge my bets and say Yes.



Question 6: Currently, the PS4 retails for $349.99 and the Xbox One retails for $399.99. What will be the suggested retail price of the NX at release? [Higher than $349.99 / $349.99 or lower]

Results:


People who said “Higher than $349.99”:
Chris S: “This will be a tricky subject for consumers in this “mid ­generation.” While being less will be competitive, at launch it may seem less of a value. A higher price is more realistic.”

Alex: “Console prices are only going to continue ballooning across the board”

Chris A: “The Wii U will likely see a price cut, as it currently sits at 300 for a bundle, and the NX may come out the gate at 350 or higher because of the slight hardware upgrade and versatility of the console if it is in fact both for home as well as being portable”

People Who said “$349.99 or lower”:
Arsenette: “Historically they have been the “cheaper” alternative to PS4/Xbone price wars.”

Rob: “This would seem like the standard retail price for the NX, and I couldn’t imagine Nintendo going any higher, especially since they have to compete with Sony and Microsoft in the console market.”

My Prediction: It would be stupid to sell the NX higher than $350, even with the PS4 Pro and Project Scorpio on the market. My pick is $349.99 or lower.



Question 7: One of the biggest criticisms of the Wii U and 3DS is the lack of a true universal account system. Will the NX finally have one? [Yes / No]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Chris S: “The recent partnership with DeNA and the predecessor of Club Nintendo on the way, the cards are in play for this to happen in a big way.”

Rider: “Nintendo is a bit behind on the times as far as online but they do eventually catch up, NNID is a step in the right direction and I think they’re going to expand on that further.”

Rob: “Nintendo is seemingly working on a new account system, in order to replace Club Nintendo. I could see the company integrating said system into the NX.”

Mike: “Because hopefully Nintendo finally realizes this would make sense and be useful!”

Alex: “This seems to be the most productive avenue as Xbox and PlayStation also use popular universal account systems”

People Who said “No”:
Arsenette: “They simply haven’t the foggiest idea how to do it in the antiquated way Japan does business. How they even produce online content for mobile devices is vastly differently (and severely gated) to how it’s done in the west. They won’t change as the west is not their intended market/demographic.”

David: “Nintendo doesn’t like to be with the times.”

Chris A: “Friend codes are still a thing”

Adam: “Nintendo wants to be family friendly, and as soon as you have accounts that can interact with others, minors will start threatening each other, swearing, etc. and the child-safe environment is compromised.”

My Prediction: Yes. It has to be yes. They would have to be brain dead to not have a universal account system at this point, especially with the existence of My Nintendo.



Question 8: Another huge criticism of the Wii U and 3DS is that all their games are region locked. With both Sony and Microsoft supporting region-free games, will games for the NX still be region locked? [Yes / No]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Arsenette: “They will moan and complain about it but won’t change it simply because their smaller Japanese developers won’t change to adapt to the times. I don’t expect any different.”

Jordan: “Nintendo is pretty strict at times. Look no further than the whole YouTube monetization thing. Nintendo can be stubborn, and I don’t see them budging on this, at least Nintendo of Japan.”

Ube: “Nintendo seems to be the most intent on segregating their markets.”

Chris A: “Because Nintendo does not see or understand the appeal of games that aren’t region locked if they are selling games per region.”

Alex: “Nintendo has a large Japanese market and will likely continue to make Japanese-exclusive games”

David: “Nintendo doesn’t like to be with the times.”

People Who said “No”:
Chris S: “It’s 2016 and it’s time to just make it happen.”

Mike: “Because hopefully Nintendo finally realizes this would make sense and be useful! (I’m aware this is the same answer to the last question, lol)”

Rob: “I think that Nintendo has heard the complaints of gamers regarding region-locked systems. In this day and age, especially with the PS4 being heralded for its region-free build, it would be a mistake for Nintendo to limit accessibility.”

My Prediction: Any other time I would have said yes, but one time at an investor meeting, Iwata once mentioned how region locking can hurt their business. Therefore, I believe it’s finally time. Nintendo will change their ways and say “No, the NX is not region locked!”



Question 9: Both the PS4 and Xbox One require you to pay for PS+/Xbox Live in order to play games online. Meanwhile, Nintendo has yet to charge for online multiplayer. With that in mind, will you have to pay in order to play online multiplayer games on the NX? [Yes / No]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Chris S: “XBox Live has shown that gamers are willing to pay for a premium online experience, and PS+ has given them heavy competition. Nintendo is ready to take its step into this premium online space especially to strengthen its online perception to the public.”

Ube: “Yes. And everyone will be angry about it. Especially after that hacker from above gets their credit card information.”

Alex: “With Nintendo’s economic struggles, it seems like an inevitability”

Rob: “As much as I hate to say it, I think we’ll have to pay for a monthly/yearly online service from Nintendo in the next generation. Of course, this is provided the company applies a greater focus on online gaming than in previous generations.”

People Who said “No”:
Jordan: “Nintendo can be greedy, but they try to appease a wide audience. A pay wall would make it more difficult for the younger demographic to enjoy the games to their fullest. Nintendo always tries to appeal to everyone (remember why they titled their most recent console the WiiU?) Paid online would exclude a lot of people.”

David: “They can’t if they hope to compete.”

Mike: “They haven’t done this in the past and it could also be a good selling point for the
system.”

My Prediction: No. I think not charging for online multiplayer would be one of the biggest selling points they can create. And Nintendo needs selling points.



Question 10: Will the NX still use physical media? [Yes / No, it’ll be all digital]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Arsenette: “Japanese market lives off of the physical market including collectors’ editions.”

Chris S: “Nintendo still values their brick -and- mortar store partnerships and maintaining a retail presence adds to their company image.”

Jordan: “The other 2 big boys aren’t fully digital either.”

Rider: “With Nintendo’s concerns over piracy I think the rumors of a cartridge based system are going to turn out being true.”

Chris A: “Nintendo’s consoles don’t have a ton of memory, unlike their competitors. Even if the NX releases with 250 gigs this will not be enough to argue for being completely digital. I believe that as long as there is a memory cap, physical copies will be a thing…that and the NX would require an online connection to get anything, which I don’t think Nintendo is about.”

Alex: “It doesn’t make sense to abandon physical media as it is easy to purchase in a store, hence increasing sales and the scope of Nintendo’s business”

David: “I don’t see physical copies going away yet”

My Prediction: Yes, duh. We’re not as close to an all-digital future as some people think. Also, this one has since been confirmed by GameStop’s CEO.



Question 11: Similar to what happened with Twilight Princess getting released on both the Wii and GameCube around the same time; will the next Legend of Zelda game be released on both the Wii U and NX around the same time? [Yes, both / No, Wii U only]

Results:


People who said “Yes, both”:
Arsenette: “Simply because they promised Zelda will be on the WiiU (to allay fears it was going to skip the WiiU) but they didn’t say anything about it NOT coming to the NX. I expect it to come out on both.”

Rider: “To push the NX right away while not hurting people who were waiting for the Wii U version, something has to be up with a game advertised before Wii U even came out to be delayed so late into the life of the console.”

Chris A: “The NX will need something to help sell it and get people to want to move away from their Wii U consoles, like The Last of Us going to PS4”

David: “Money”

People Who said “No, Wii U only”:
Chris S: “This game will launch for the Wii U exclusively. However, a re-release a year later for the NX could definitely happen.”

Alex: “It will be finished long before the NX”

Rob: “We don’t really know much about the NX, and it seems like the upcoming Legend of Zelda game is trucking along in terms of development. The NX will have its own Zelda game.”

My Prediction: Yes. This was confirmed earlier this year, but when Zelda failed to hit its 2015 release, I knew it was getting a dual release.



Question 12: Will the NX launch with a game that’s a completely new first party IP? [Yes / No]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Chris: “Despite the strengths of their existing IPs, I think that in the same vein of Wii Sports & NintendoLand, there will be a wholly original 1st party game at launch.”

Rob: “Nintendo has enjoyed quite a bit of success with Splatoon, especially for a company that’s been criticized for sticking with the safer Marios and Zeldas in its catalog. Why not kick off the NX’s release right with an entirely new experience?”

People Who said “No”:
Rider: “I expect there probably will be one but I don’t expect them to take a gamble on having it as a launch title”

Chris A: “I think Nintendo will want to gauge interest first, which means going with established
franchises such as Mario, Zelda, or Metroid. I’m sure a new Mario Party will release with the
NX.”

David: “COMPLETE GUESS”

My Prediction: Yes. Nintendo has been trying some new ideas with their device launches lately and I think they will at least launch with a new IP that will try to be the new Wii Sports, in terms of success.



Question 13: This year, will Nintendo announce a game for the NX featuring a Nintendo IP that hasn’t had an entry on either the Wii U or 3DS? (ex: F-Zero, Golden Sun, Sin & Punishment, Star Tropics, etc) [Yes / No]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Arsenette: “A lot of developers have been super quiet lately which usually means they are working on something extremely secretive.”

Chris S: “As stated before, Nintendo’s strength is in its IPs. Nostalgia always comes in waves so bringing back a dormant IP is definitely going to happen.”

Jordan: “The WiiU is still a pretty infantile console. There are enough IPs not on the WiiU that logistically it just makes sense that one would appear on the NX that isn’t yet available on the WiiU.”

Ube: “Yes but quietly.”

Rider: “It will be an easy push for Nintendo to try to build up hype to go to an older cult classic franchise, I feel Mute City and Big Blue as MK8 DLC was a test to see if they should make a new F-Zero and putting it on NX would be a smart business move to push their new console.”

Chris A: “Not a new IP, but an IP with an established fan base hungry for nostalgia. If Shenmue has taught game designers anything, it’s that nostalgia colored glasses will cause an old IP to make money before gameplay footage is even released. A new Golden Sun title could do this.”

Rob: “Nintendo has a way to surprise us, all the while targeting our nostalgia. F-Zero would be a good example, especially if it uses the superior power that the NX would have compared to the Wii U.”

People Who said “No”:
Alex: “They will most likely use 2016 to market their most popular IPs (Mario, Zelda) and launch those IPs in 2017 or later”

David: “COMPLETE GUESS”

Mike: “I think they’re going to focus on the new “technology” of the NX (whatever that may be, I’m just speculating). Maybe at some point down the line though.”

My Prediction: Yes, I think they will. The 3DS brought back Kid Icarus and the Wii U brought back Pikmin. I agree with some of my friends and think that F-Zero will be the returning franchise. My only fear is that Nintendo’s big returning franchise is a mainline Metroid, which would totally screw me over thanks to Federation Force.



Question 14: When the NX launches, will that year’s “Call of Duty” game be released for the NX? [Yes / No]

Results:


Note: One person elected to not answer.

People who said “Yes”:
Chris S: “At launch, Nintendo will have decent 3rd party support like it did with the Wii U.”

Jordan: “As long as the console is easy to develop for and is similar specs to the PS4 and Xbone, this seems obvious.”

David: “Money”

Mike: “CoD is one of the most popular games/series out there and it would be a smart move for Nintendo to make it available on the NX.”

People Who said “No”:
Rider: “With a game series so set on doing the same thing over again I doubt they’d go to a new console right away when they weren’t regularly on the last generation”

Chris A: “It’s COD, no COD player is going to play COD on a Nintendo console. They have their console choice already…”

Alex: “Call of Duty runs too powerful of an engine for the NX to keep up and is also not a “family game” that Nintendo strives for”

My Prediction: Yes. Third party companies typically play nice with Nintendo early on and Activision tends to play nicer with Nintendo than others.



Final Question: Nintendo previously said that they will reveal more details about the NX at E3 2016. Will the NX be released in 2016? [Yes / No]

Results:


People who said “Yes”:
Arsenette: “I honestly believe it will be, no exact reason why only than a “feeling” it will.”

Ube: “just in time for after Christmas.”

Chris A: “Probably near the end of the year before Christmas in order to maximize sales and curiosity. General gamers and non-gamers alike enjoy Nintendo products. The parents looking for the new hot gift for their kids and the college students curious about the next party console they can play with their friends will most likely give it a try.”

Mike: “The NX has been rumored/talked about for a while so I’m sure it’s been in development for a decent amount of time, meaning it’ll be ready to release by the end of this year.”

People Who said “No”:
Chris S: “Unless there are more NX details before E3 then maybe there will be a shot of releasing in 2016. I feel that Zelda Wii U will be the crown jewel of Nintendo’s 2016 holiday & even though the 3DS and Wii U are past their prime, 2016 seems too soon to launch new hardware without pre¬E3 info.”

Jordan: “It’s still too soon. They announced the WiiU but didn’t release it within the year. The same will happen with the NX.”

Rider: “I’m expecting them to push things back to make sure everything is worked out, 1st quarter of 2017 expected.”

Alex: “If it was being released in 2016, we would have heard about it by now”

David: “Seems too close to the Wii U probably 2017”

Rob: “It seems too soon to announce a brand new console for 2016. I think 2017 would be a safer bet.”

My Prediction: Unfortunately, I said Yes. Nintendo announced a March 2017 launch earlier this year but at the beginning of the year, I honestly thought we would be seeing it this holiday season. Hopefully pushing the system back to March will result in a better launch lineup for the system.


And that’s all there is. Very soon we’ll see how good we all were. Regardless of what the NX ends up being, hopefully everyone will find something to their liking. Good luck everyone!




1 comment:

  1. LOL That was fun. Will be interesting to see what the final answers really were when we finally get news today! ♥

    ReplyDelete